Deutsche Bank suggests HSBC's bankers are best placed in 2023
If you're looking for a nice, steady sort investment banking job where you probably won't get fired and probably will have a few deals to work on this year, you probably want to work in investment grade debt capital markets (DCM). And if you're looking for a steady bank to do the job at, you might want to choose HSBC.
This is our takeaway from the latest note from Benjamin Goy, Deutsche Bank's Frankfurt-based European banking analyst.
Goy noted that investment grade DCM was having a good start to the year a few weeks ago. Now he's back with a similar observation, plus the intimation that HSBC is looking more solid than elsewhere.
Investment grade DCM revenues are up 5% on a year to date basis and are the only area of investment banking where things are going well, says Goy. In high yield DCM, revenues are down 50%. In syndicated loans, fees are down 75%. In M&A, revenues are down 50%.
As we reported last time, Goy is upbeat about the investment grade DCM recovery and thinks it (possibly heralds) a recovery in other areas. - This is what happened in 2020, at least. He does, however, acknowledge that the macro conditions are rather different now and that "higher-than-expected cost inflation, higher loan losses" could yet scupper the banking revival.
Nonetheless, in the current circumstances, some banks look more attractive than others. As Goy's chart below shows, investment banking fee revenues at big DCM-focused banks with large corporate client bases held up best in February 2023. That means HSBC and Standard Chartered. Credit Suisse and UBS look a little more precarious.
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