"If you're out of the market now, you're in real trouble"

If you're looking for a new banking job in 2025, what's the chance you'll find one? That depends on many variables, including sector, location and seniority, but it's clear that the hiring market isn't nearly as robust as people had hoped for.

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That's problematic for the people let go last year, for the people let go from HSBC this year, and for people being let go from the likes of Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley right now. They are being added to an increasingly large pile of people who are out of the market and trying to get back in again.

"It's difficult and banks are being conservative," says one capital markets managing director (MD) who left a US bank last year and is looking for work. "The uncertainty is much higher than anticipated, and there's certainly not much appetite to hire MDs given this dynamic combined with juniorisation."

Last year wasn't bad for investment banking fee-based revenues. A newly released report from BCG Expand notes that origination and advisory revenues rose 32% year-on-year in 2024, the first full year of growth since 2022. However, BCG notes that volumes are still running at around 40% below average as a percentage of US GDP. Although it still says deals should increase this year, BCG notes that the market has "softened," and that "forecasts, budgets and business plans for the year are being revised as we write."

It bodes badly for people already on the sidelines. One London-based M&A headhunter says he's busy, but that banks' appetite to hire is focused on particular profiles: "Power, utilities, infrastructure, old economy stuff." Desired recruits are currently employed. "If you're out of the market now you're in real trouble," he says gloomily.

Not everyone agrees. Andy Pringle at search firm Circle Square says he's been placing senior associates and vice presidents with "open-minded" clients who appreciate that some people are locked out of the market through no fault of their own.

However, previously optimistic headhunters are more guarded. The hiring market has weakened in the past few weeks, says Pringle. Clients have become more picky. In London, candidates with European languages are suddenly more popular. 

"We're busier, but things are rockier," says the head of another search firm. "Everything is taking longer," he adds.

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